New Mortgage Introducer poll shows advisers now brace for higher rates as inflation risks linger
Mortgage brokers are now more likely to anticipate further increases in Bank of England (BoE) base rate this year, results of a Mortgage Introducer poll have shown.
Asked how many interest rate rises they expect from the central bank for the rest of the year, the largest group of respondents pointed to two moves higher. A further third forecast one rise, while one in five expect no change. A small minority foresee three or more increases.
The poll results highlight a material change in tone from the “cuts are coming” narrative that dominated much of the broker conversation last year—particularly during periods when falling swap rates were feeding through into improved fixed-rate pricing.
The shift in sentiment also comes as the Bank of England has recently signalled heightened sensitivity to inflation risks linked to geopolitical and energy-market developments.
At its mid-March meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%, explicitly pointing to the need to monitor the evolving Middle East situation and its impact on energy prices and the UK inflation outlook.
That followed the BoE’s February 2026 decision, where the MPC also held at 3.75%, but with a split vote (5–4)—four members preferred a quarter-point cut to 3.5%.
In recent weeks, rising gilt yields and energy-market turmoil have tightened funding conditions, complicating the near-term outlook for mortgage pricing even before any further BoE move.
In a separate Mortgage Introducer poll published earlier this month, sentiment had already cooled sharply on the prospect of easing—52% of respondents expected no BoE cuts in 2026, with the pressure created by the energy shock, product withdrawals, and higher fixed-rate pricing.
The BoE itself has emphasised that while monetary policy cannot reverse a supply shock, it must respond to the risk of persistent inflation effects—leaving the door open to a more restrictive stance if the shock proves larger or longer-lasting.
The hawkish tilt implied by the latest hike-focused poll contrasts with previous broker surveys that leaned towards rate reductions.
For example, an August 2025 Landbay survey found brokers were overwhelmingly positioned for further cuts, with a majority expecting at least two reductions by early 2026.
And while some economist forecasts published by Mortgage Introducer earlier in the year still pointed to two 25bp cuts in 2026 (to 3.25% by year-end), they also stressed that timing—and inflation persistence—remained the key risk for lenders and borrowers.
If brokers’ one-to-two hikes scenario plays out, it would reinforce the case for advisers to prioritise product resilience and client flexibility—particularly for households approaching refixes in 2026, and for would-be buyers navigating affordability tests that can tighten quickly when swap curves reprice.
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