Gentle lift, but recovery far from locked in
Property values across New Zealand rose 0.2% in March, matching February’s gain and nudging the national median to $802,599, according to Cotality NZ’s latest Home Value Index.
National values are still 1.3% lower than a year ago and 17.1% below the early‑2022 peak of $968,333, keeping the “wealth effect” for existing borrowers limited.
Chief property economist Kelvin Davidson (pictured) said March’s move will attract attention from those watching for a turning point.
“Coming off the back of February’s small gain, the latest rise means we’ve now had two increases in a row, potentially signalling a change in trend,” Davidson said.
He noted that values have been slow to respond to lower mortgage rates and a nascent economic recovery, with confidence the “missing piece” now further undermined by the conflict and sharply higher fuel prices, making it hard to see a sharp lift in housing sentiment or values in the near term. He warned that the Iran conflict is adding “an extra layer of uncertainty over everything”, including buyer and seller confidence.
Broader market data tell a similar story of plateauing prices rather than a fresh boom. QV figures show national home values are now 21.6% higher than in March 2020, but down 0.4% over the past year and 0.1% in the March 2026 quarter, while the Reserve Bank is forecasting house prices to be broadly flat through 2026.
Regional winners and laggards
Beneath the national average, regional results underline how uneven the upturn remains. Christchurch values rose 0.6% in March and Dunedin 0.7%, while Hamilton and Wellington dipped 0.1% and Auckland and Tauranga were flat.
Davidson noted that “in a nutshell, both the economy and housing market still face a testing period ahead”, despite pockets of South Island strength supported by farming. He pointed to South Island markets such as Invercargill and several rural districts, where strong farming bases have helped values reach new peaks, even as the Iran conflict raises questions around diesel supply and primary production costs.
Within Auckland, Cotality’s data show a more mixed picture, with areas such as Manukau and North Shore edging higher while Rodney, Waitākere and Franklin have softened over recent months.
Davidson said improved affordability in the city – thanks to more supply, lower prices, and higher incomes – has created better conditions for buyers, even though subdued services‑sector confidence means the market may remain slow for some time.
Wellington continues to lag on a longer view, with all sub‑markets down over the past year and still more than 20% below their peaks, reflecting muted confidence and lower exposure to growth sectors such as farming. Davidson also cautioned that rising domestic political uncertainty later in 2026 is another reason to be careful about the capital’s price outlook.
Rates and sales outlook under pressure
The Cotality economist also highlighted growing risks around the broader property market outlook. He noted that while there may not be any knee‑jerk official cash rate rises in the short term, global uncertainty and inflation concerns have already pushed up interest rates in world money markets, feeding through to mortgage rate lifts at some New Zealand banks.
Many households are responding by fixing for longer, which offers individuals more certainty but still leaves the wider housing market facing headwinds from higher rates and a softer economy.
Cotality’s modelled forecast for property sales to climb from about 90,000 last year to 100,000 this year is now “starting to look a stretch”, with values vulnerable to weakening again if the conflict drags on.Download the April HVI now.
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